In this article, some really telling information is being cited, but I think it is still premature to say that Microsoft has lost it all with Vista. While it would thrill me enormously to see Vista continue to fail, it probably does not do too much good to the global IT industry for that to happen. A decline of MS’ monopoly will be a boon and a boost to innovation and productivity globally. I think the inevitable is probably not going to happen without an ugly fight from MS who will use patent threats and by buying favours from companies like Novell to try and stave off their eventual freeing of their code base.
I do expect that the proxy war via the untenable and bloated ooxml to continue with spins around interoperability, “billions of .doc documents” etc. All of this sounds like a dying organization crying out for a lifeline. More interesting times ahead!